23rd Feb 2021 @ 10:14 am

Each day , the new figures for Covid cases are released, but how many cases should we be seeing each day to go down through the levels?

Infection rates are measured in cases per 100,000, and Lanzarote has about half that number again – 152,289, to be exact. So, if we look at the threshold numbers of cases for each level and multiply by 1.52, we get an idea of how many cases will be needed in a week or fortnight  to qualify for a lower level. Divide the figure by 14 or 7, and you get the daily figure we’ll be hoping for.

This means that, to get out of Level 4, Lanzarote needs fewer than 27 cases a  day,. We’re comfortably achieving that up until now and, barring disasters, should be in Level 3 after the weekend.

To get out of Level 3 down to Level 2, Lanzarote needs fewer than 16 cases a day, and we’re just under that over the last few days. This rate will need to be sustained for a fortnight to be sure, though.

Level 1 will require fewer than 5.7 cases a day, and leaving the levels into what they still optimistically call  the “new normality” will be possible if we get it below 2.7.  These results are, however, unlikely at the moment and have not been achieved consistently since August last year, just before the arrival of the second wave.

The goods news is that, even if daily figures are too high to qualify for a level drop, hospital occupation figures may not be.  

Lanzarote currently has 48 beds adapted for critical patients; 45 at the Dr Jose Molina Oroso Hospital and a further 3 at Hospiten in Puerto del Carmen. The current total of 12 in intensive care means that 25% of those units are taken up by Covid patients, and this figure allows us to enter Level 3. If the amount of beds remains unchanged, we’ll need to see the intensive care occupancy fall to 7 to qualify for Level 2; 4 to qualify for level 1 and 2 to leave the levels.

Other indicators on which the levels are judged, such as percentage of positive tests, traceability and general hospital occupation, are all at low or medium risk levels.

Average daily cases on Lanzarote for each level:

Level 4: >27

Level 3: 16 – 27

Level 2: 5.7 – 16

Level 1: 2.7 – 5.7

New normal: Fewer than 2.7

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