The Association of Major Tourism Companies in Spain (Exceltur) has released its latest forecast for the year ahead, signalling a mixed outlook for the national tourism sector.
According to the organisation, Spain’s tourism GDP grew by 2.1% in the first quarter of the year, while business sales rose by 4%.
However, this increase in revenue has been accompanied by a sharp rise in operating costs linked to ongoing global instability. Exceltur reports that oil prices have increased by 9.0%, energy costs by 8.1% and supplies by 7.0%, all directly resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.
Looking ahead to 2026 as a whole, Exceltur has raised its forecast for tourism GDP growth in Spain to 2.5%, which compares with the Bank of Spain’s latest forecast of 2.3%. The revision is largely attributed to the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran. Exceltur forecasts that more Spanish and foreign tourists will choose Spain due to its appeal and the safety of its offerings. This effect would translate into a two‑point increase in tourism GDP, equivalent to 4.239 billion euros.
Nevertheless, the negative economic effects resulting from rising prices, declining consumption and the impact on household and business income would lead to a 1.9‑point reduction in tourism GDP in 2026, equivalent to 4.045 billion euros.
By region, Exceltur highlights particularly strong projected growth in Castilla‑La Mancha (+8.2%) and Extremadura (+7.8%), driven by the rise in domestic tourism. Other destinations on the eastern coast are also set to benefit, including the Valencian Community (+7.7%) and Murcia (+6.3%), as well as the Balearic Islands (+6.0%). To a lesser extent, the Canary Islands are expected to see growth of +2.7%.
Leave a Reply
Want to join the discussion?Feel free to contribute!