Canary Islands feeling the effects of war

Last month’s headlines were dominated by news of the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran, starting a war for which no clear reason has yet been provided, and with no apparent plan for what happens afterwards.

The Canaries are about as far as it is possible to get in Europe from the bombs and drones in the Middle East, but the islands are still likely to feel the effects of a conflict that is already having global repercussions.

Among European countries, Spain has stood out as the most prominent critic of the war. After refusing US aircraft permission to operate missions from shared military bases in Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated “this war is illegal, a major threat to the rules based international order and contrary to the interests of humanity.”

This prompted Donald Trump to call Spain “terrible partners” and vaguely threaten to “cut off trade” with the country. However, as Spain is a member of the EU, the US would be unable to impose unilateral trade restrictions on Spain.

Targeting specific products such as wine or olive oil might be another retaliatory tactic, but the Canaries export very little of either product.

Instead, the main threat the war poses to the islands’ economy is likely to be oil prices. The most immediate effect of the war on Lanzarote has been a sharp rise in petrol prices, with prices of a litre of fuel rising by around 15 cents in a fortnight. These rises are likely to have a knock-on effect on all aspects of Canarian life, such as food prices and electricity bills.

The Canarian Government has launched an enquiry into whether petrol suppliers are seeking to profiteer from the situation, but has also admitted that the price of crude oil could have an effect on transport costs, leading to an increase in the cost of living.

Oil prices are also likely to affect other countries, among them the Canaries’ most important tourist market, the United Kingdom. There are already strong warnings that the war may push the UK economy into recession, meaning a fall in spending power. This would have an inevitable effect on tourism.

However, this must be balanced against other factors such as the collapse of tourist destinations in the Middle East such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi, where arrivals have already plummeted. Other destinations that compete with the Canaries, such as Cyprus and Turkey, are also vulnerable in comparison with the Canaries.

The tourists who’ll be looking for alternatives often fit the profile of the wealthy “quality” tourism that the islands have been courting for years.

However, for the huge amounts of Canarian tourists with more modest means, as well as the poorer residents who live and work on the islands, there is likely to be no good news resulting from the war.